Cloudera Inc. (CLDR) sits -22.31% below its 52-week high: Deep Dive into the Technicals

Cloudera Inc. (CLDR) reported loss of -1.69% in market trading today. The company report on September 2, 2020 that Cloudera Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2021 Financial Results. At $11.03 per share, the company is currently around -3.53% down year to date in the stock market. At the time of writing, Cloudera Inc. (CLDR) has a market cap of $3.44 billion. The average transaction volume for CLDR over the past month (5393998 shares per day) is trailing its average daily volume over the past year by -6.19, which suggests market participants have been less active in this stock of late.

Cloudera Inc. (CLDR) has been in rally mode, as indicated by the relationship between its 200-day and 20-day major moving averages. That said, over the past 30 days, CLDR shares have risen 13.83%. The stock has moved up 27.50 over the trailing 12 months, gaining behind the rest of the market by 84.07%. It has also trailed competitors and similar names by 8.29%.

Looking at Key Indicators

Naturally, a cursory survey of superficial price points from the chart don’t say a whole lot about where CLDR shares could be headed. That’s why we need to dig a little deeper and check out what some of the most important momentum indicators seem to be saying.

The relationship between changes in price and the underlying strength or weakness over periods can point out deeper factors in the pattern that can often generate insights for technical analysts through momentum factors. Two of our favorite oscillating indicators are the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic %k Oscillator. In each case, the scoring is on a scale somewhere between 0 and 100, and in case, the levels to watch are “70” and “30”, with the former representing an “overbought” state and the latter presenting an “oversold” state.

With that in mind, here is a look at CLDR shares from this perspective. The 20-day RSI reading for CLDR is currently 44.31, which indicates that is not particularly expensive or cheap, and not predisposed to a reactive price movement based on this measure. If we look at the 20-day Stochastic %k measure, we find it at 15.30, which represents another indication of a oversold outlook.

Listening to the Analysts

Right now, CLDR shares appear to be trading -17.38% under the average price target for one year ahead from Wall Street analysts, which is at $13.35. On average, Street analysts put their recommendation at 2.80, which is scored on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 representing a “Strong Buy” and 5 representing a “Strong Sell”.

That suggests analysts are neutral on CLDR looking ahead over the coming 12 months.

Assessing the Risk

Risk is an essential factor in comprehensive investment analysis. One of the key factors that analysts consider in determining the systemic risk involved in a stock is called “beta”, which represents an individual stock’s volatility relative to the volatility demonstrated by stocks as an asset class, in general, as a function of broad market data.

CLDR, for example, trades right now with a beta of 1.04. The rest of the market is normalized to a beta score of 1.0, which means CLDR is more volatile than the average stock. By the same token, CLDR should be seen as somewhat more risky for market participants than the average stock.

We would also note that CLDR has posted average daily volatility over the past two weeks of 73.22%, or -0.84% more than it has scored on the same measure over the past hundred days.

The Fundamentals in Focus

As we now turn to the fundamental picture, we begin by analyzing it the way one might analyze a building: by starting with the foundation – the balance sheet. Without a strong foundation, the rest of the structure can’t stand.

For CLDR, cash levels are currently sitting at 160.93 million. That figure is balanced by 539.59 million in current liabilities. But that has to be put in context. The company’s debt levels have been growing. To further round out the picture, total assets are at 2.2 billion and total liabilities sit at 806.51 million, granting a pretty thorough ground-up sense of the company and how it might withstand challenges ahead, should they appear.

In terms of recent free cash flow, CLDR, is currently reporting 67.27 million, which represents a quarterly net change of 53.29 million in cash flowing in the door. In terms of operations, the company reported 68.36 million in net operating cash flow.

Looking at the revenue path, we saw last quarter’s top-line number come in at 210.46 million in total revenues, which represents a y/y quarterly change of -12.26, and a sequential quarterly sales decline of 12.30%.

That brings us to the real meat of the matter: the bottom line. Cloudera Inc. (CLDR) yielded a gross basic income of 156.22 million, which comes on a Cost-of-Goods-Sold number registering at 54.24 million, seated in 300.1 billion total diluted outstanding shares, adding up to earnings per share of -0.83. Notably, the consensus view of analysts looking ahead to next quarter is currently at 0.1.

That allows us to round out this picture with a look at valuations. Based on this data, and the forecasts we have at hand, the coming fiscal year looks to be headed toward 0.45 in total earnings per share.

However, estimates are only guesses about the future. Both business and investment trends are more important to take into consideration.

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