Vaxart Inc. (VXRT) share are down around -1.11% in today market trading with stock price surged as much as 2.0% to hit day high of $7.43, before returning a portion of loss to currently trading around $7.21 in the red. The company report on October 12, 2020 that DEADLINE ALERT for OSPN, VXRT, PLAN, and BLNK: The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz Reminds Investors of Class Actions on Behalf of Shareholders. The average transaction volume for VXRT over the past month (19705400 shares per day) is trailing its average daily volume over the past year by 13.39, which suggests market participants have been more active in this stock of late.
Vaxart Inc. (VXRT) has been in rally mode, as indicated by the relationship between its 200-day and 20-day major moving averages. That said, over the past 30 days, VXRT shares have risen 39.18%. The stock has moved up 1844.00 over the trailing 12 months, gaining behind the rest of the market by 9987.53%. It has also trailed competitors and similar names by 42.65%.
Looking at Key Indicators
Naturally, a cursory survey of superficial price points from the chart don’t say a whole lot about where VXRT shares could be headed. That’s why we need to dig a little deeper and check out what some of the most important momentum indicators seem to be saying.
The relationship between changes in price and the underlying strength or weakness over periods can point out deeper factors in the pattern that can often generate insights for technical analysts through momentum factors. Two of our favorite oscillating indicators are the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic %k Oscillator. In each case, the scoring is on a scale somewhere between 0 and 100, and in case, the levels to watch are “70” and “30”, with the former representing an “overbought” state and the latter presenting an “oversold” state.
With that in mind, here is a look at VXRT shares from this perspective. The 20-day RSI reading for VXRT is currently 49.49, which indicates that is not particularly expensive or cheap, and not predisposed to a reactive price movement based on this measure. If we look at the 20-day Stochastic %k measure, we find it at 40.93, which represents another indication of a neutral outlook.
Listening to the Analysts
Right now, VXRT shares appear to be trading -63.35% under the average price target for one year ahead from Wall Street analysts, which is at $19.67. On average, Street analysts put their recommendation at 2.00, which is scored on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 representing a “Strong Buy” and 5 representing a “Strong Sell”.
That suggests analysts are bullish on VXRT looking ahead over the coming 12 months.
Assessing the Risk
Risk is an essential factor in comprehensive investment analysis. One of the key factors that analysts consider in determining the systemic risk involved in a stock is called “beta”, which represents an individual stock’s volatility relative to the volatility demonstrated by stocks as an asset class, in general, as a function of broad market data.
VXRT, for example, trades right now with a beta of -0.04. The rest of the market is normalized to a beta score of 1.0, which means VXRT is less volatile than the average stock. By the same token, VXRT should be seen as somewhat less risky for market participants than the average stock.
We would also note that VXRT has posted average daily volatility over the past two weeks of 96.79%, or 109.09% less than it has scored on the same measure over the past hundred days.
The Fundamentals in Focus
As we now turn to the fundamental picture, we begin by analyzing it the way one might analyze a building: by starting with the foundation – the balance sheet. Without a strong foundation, the rest of the structure can’t stand.
For VXRT, cash levels are currently sitting at 44.39 million. That figure is balanced by 11.5 million in current liabilities. To further round out the picture, total assets are at 64.19 million and total liabilities sit at 23.95 million, granting a pretty thorough ground-up sense of the company and how it might withstand challenges ahead, should they appear.
In terms of recent free cash flow, VXRT, is currently reporting -3.74 million, which represents a quarterly net change of 30.86 million in cash flowing in the door. In terms of operations, the company reported -3.73 million in net operating cash flow.
Looking at the revenue path, we saw last quarter’s top-line number come in at 0.52 million in total revenues, which represents a y/y quarterly change of -515.29, and a sequential quarterly sales decline of 400.00%.
That brings us to the real meat of the matter: the bottom line. Vaxart Inc. (VXRT) yielded a gross basic income of 9.05 million, which comes on a Cost-of-Goods-Sold number registering at 0.52 million, seated in 74.68 billion total diluted outstanding shares, adding up to earnings per share of -0.60. Notably, the consensus view of analysts looking ahead to next quarter is currently at -0.09.
That allows us to round out this picture with a look at valuations. Based on this data, and the forecasts we have at hand, the coming fiscal year looks to be headed toward -0.3 in total earnings per share.
However, estimates are only guesses about the future. Both business and investment trends are more important to take into consideration.